"Russian Soldiers Don’t Want to Fight" - The War in Ukraine with General Ben Hodges - Episode 1

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Hodges highlights four important strategic considerations Russia made in advance of their invasion that now appear to be miscalculations. As a result, he believes that by the end of 2022, Ukrainian forces will push the Russian military back to the 23 February line.

These miscalculations include, first, Russia’s overconfidence in their force advantage. Russia believed the difference between its military capability and Ukraine’s was large enough to enable a swift victory like similar military operations in Eastern Europe during the Cold War. Second, Putin was confident that he could isolate Ukraine from the support of third parties like Europe and the US, a calculation which appears to have been misguided as more money, weapons, and supplies pour into Ukraine from its Western allies. Third, Russian experts believed that the territory gained in Ukraine would be worth the costs of war and the pain of economic sanctions. High casualties and a crippled economy tell a different story. Lastly, Russia thought that war would destroy Ukraine as a democracy and break apart NATO unity in the face of the Russian threat. In fact, it has strengthened Ukraine’s democratic national identity and encouraged international support for NATO.

Hodges believes that the future of Ukraine will not only be determined by a test of will within Ukraine and its people, but also by a test of will amongst Western democracies. Ukraine’s freedom will in large part depend on the democratic world’s continued support. The war in Ukraine will have far-reaching effects ranging from Taiwan to the rise of autocracy, meaning it is a frontline that democracies cannot afford to lose. As long as domestic disputes don’t distract us from Ukraine’s fight for democracy and self-determination, any chance of Russian victory will be eliminated.