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30 Sep: Russians Realized THERE IS NO HOPE | War in Ukraine Explained

The Analyst (New Real Media)
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Published on 01 Oct 2022 / In News and Politics

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I am a Ukrainian. My country has been invaded by Russia. In this video I will tell you what happened on the two hundred and ninteenth day of the war.

Day 219: September 30

Today the Ukrainians have closed the pocket around the Lyman group, which only means an inevitable demise for the Russians that got left. That is why today, many videos emerged showing that the Russians are abandoning their positions and running through the forest in hopes that they can still escape the cauldron. Those who were too late are seen to be forming a huge convoy to break through Zarichne and try to escape to the north. Even Russian sources are finally admitting that the situation is catastrophic, and now I am going to explain how the situation developed and why the Russians allowed this to happen.

Today at night, the Ukrainians focused their attack on 2 crucial points: Stavky and Zarichne. The Ukrainians attacked Stavky from the north in an attempt to cut the last supply road to Drobysheve. There is another road that leads directly to Lyman, however, it goes right along the front line, which makes it extremely risky to use. Nonetheless, after the Ukrainians pushed the Russians out of Stavky and started to develop their offensive further, the Russians in Drobysheve immediately abandoned their positions and gladly used this road to get to Lyman because by moving to Lyman, they reserved however small but still a chance to get out of the cauldron.

The Ukrainians also continued developing their attack on Zarichne from the south. Given that the Ukrainians had already established total control between Lyman and Yampil, the Russians in Yampil had only one road left that indirectly connected them to the mainland. In fear that the Ukrainians would get too close to this road and start establishing fire control over it, the Russians abandoned their positions here as well and moved towards Zarichne. It seems like they still did not use this road for safety reasons, which implies that they probably left behind a lot of machinery because there is footage showing the Russians passing a forestal area on foot. Later today, photos from the liberated Yampil already started to emerge, confirming that the Russians fled.

Russian sources provided counterevidence and claimed that the road connecting Zarichne to Kreminna is not blocked. They filmed how a small convoy is using this road, however, the footage appears to be close to Kreminna, which is around 15 km away from the action. Here the Russians are controlling several important settlements that are located between the Ukrainians and the road, which makes the road in this region relatively safe. A high accumulation of forces in Zarichne suggests otherwise. It indicates that the movement is not free.

The biggest mistake the Russians made was underestimating Ukrainian forces. Russian commanders consistently predicted that the Ukrainian counteroffensive was about to lose its momentum and run out of resources. That is why the Russians continued to control the biggest towns, despite the fact that the Ukrainians had already advanced dozens of kilometers behind them. Ukrainian logistics is more efficient than Russian because it is inland, while the Russians usually have long supply shoulders, which puts significant pressure on their forces if they are advancing too fast. As you remember, the Russians consistently required a several-day regrouping each time they made several-kilometer progress. The Ukrainians, in contrast, are attacking non-stop. The failure to realize that the Ukrainians were able to sustain the tempo of their counteroffensive led to the continuous collapse of the front line and the formation of the Lyman cauldron.

Simultaneously, the Ukrainians are actively developing their bridgehead on the Oskil River’s eastern bank. Today a video emerged showing that the Ukrainians are freely moving their forces across the river using pontoon bridges, which might indicate that Russian artillery and aviation do not control the region tightly. In part, the reason is that the river here is shallow, and the areas where the Ukrainians are crossing the river are numerous. Many sources have been suggesting it for the past several weeks, and the fact that the Ukrainians released this video confirms their confidence in the continuous existence of these passages.

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