Analyst Who Nailed 2016 & 2020 U.S. Elections Sees Huge Economic Headwind With 2024 Vote | David Woo

Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo @DavidWooUnbound, CEO of David Woo Unbound, a global forum devoted to the promotion of fact-based debates about markets, politics, and economics, joins Julia La Roche on episode 145 for a wide-ranging conversation on economics and politics.

In this episode, Woo shares his macro framework, emphasizing the intersection of economics, politics, and geopolitics and the need to understand their impact on market outcomes. Woo also explores the potential risks and challenges facing the US economy, including political instability and polarization.

Woo, the former head of Global Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at Bank of America, is known for some of his bold and contrarian calls, including Trump winning the presidential race in 2016 (https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/08/bofaml-analyst-got-ovation-from-co-workers-the-morning-after-election.html), and that the 2020 US presidential election would be much closer than expected and the results contested (https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-dangerous-groupthink-stalking-wall-street-20210909-p58q48). With the increased political polarization in the U.S., Woo sees a real pressure point once we enter the third quarter.

“Once we get into July, we're four months away from the election, I think it's going to feel like shit. I think America, Americans are going to be petrified about what is going to be in store for the country in the final four months leading up to the election,” Woo said, adding that when safeguards to the system get “seriously stress tested” it will be “a huge economic headwind” to households and companies.

Elsewhere, he shares contrarian investment views and highlights the importance of facts and numbers in public discourse. Finally, Woo discusses his work with David Woo Unbound and the mission to bring diverse perspectives together for meaningful discussions.

Links:
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound
Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound

0:00 Intro
1:18 Macro view and why it’s harder to make money
3:05 Intersection of economics, politics, and geopolitics
4:52 Biden has to get the economy right, needs a soft landing
6:50 Game Theory with oil prices
9:00 Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy
13:00 Government spending contributed 1/3 of GDP growth last year
17:30 Economic risk in the U.S.
18:40 Political risk
22:00 Political division ahead of election day
26:26 Contrarian views and ideas today
34:44 Perception of the U.S. from the outside
42:20 Parting thoughts

#economy #macro #politics