Myth busting the Ukraine-Russia war

There's no denying that the Ukraine-Russia war is, in part, an information war, and with the recent announcement that Russian forces would be withdrawing from the Kiev front, the propaganda has gone into high gear.

Russia claims it's destroyed the Ukrainian army's ability to fight, and will now liberate the Donbass (as well as claiming that's all it ever wanted)

Some, going to extremes the other way, see Ukrainian victory as imminent, and the Russian army as a broken force.

While I want to get back to questions of defence economics and industry as quickly as possible, I wanted to address this topic from the recent poll before moving on.

I'll include the disclaimer that this is a question I've actively avoided to date, because it's harder to quantify and assess than other questions, but hopefully you appreciate the approach I've taken. In the end, only one person knows the true scope of Russia's intentions, and I'm not Vladimir Putin.

Personally, I think their real goals have little relation to the publicly stated ones, I just take Russia at its word here as a means to make a point.

And, as for the headline question; whoever is winning the fight, let's all remember the costs it imposes on civilians.

I apologise for the small text. This was the last presentation I recorded before noticing all of the requests for increased font sizes.

Timestamps below: Thanks to nibblrrr for putting these together!

00:00 — INTRODUCTION
00:30 — The info war rages on
02:06 — Illustrating the problem with 'who is winning'
02:50 — Can lead to scenarios where both sides 'win'
04:32 — What am I going to cover?

06:12 — MYTH 1: "Russia has destroyed the Ukrainian military!"
06:56 — Asking for help doesn't mean you're losing
09:22 — Russian kill claims are extensive
10:43 — And it's not just Russians deploying these figures
12:09 — Claims are rapidly approaching absurdity
15:55 — "Kiev was a feint!"

19:18 — MYTH 2: "Russia could turn this around easily!"
20:22 — "Russia could just flatten Ukraine!"
23:21 — "Russia has a huge army it's not using!"
25:41 — "They're showing restraint in the use of fires!"
28:06 — But what does this even mean?

31:15 — MYTH 3: "Ukraine has destroyed the Russian army!"
33:41 — Ukrainian potential overclaiming
36:31 — "Ukraine is gaining tanks!"

40:44 — WHO IS 'WINNING'? — How to assess
41:59 — Demilitarization
46:12 — The Donbass
47:55 — Halting NATO expansion
50:46 — Conclusion

53:28 — CHANNEL UPDATE