India’s population might be stabilising, not exploding

“Replacement Level Fertility : The fertility rate at which a population replaces itself from one generation to another.”

According to the United Nations Population Fund, if a country’s fertility rate is lower than 2.1, the current generation is not producing enough children to replace itself, leading to a decline in the population.

The National Family Health Survey(NFHS) has reported that the Total fertility rate or TFR has reduced from 2.2 to 2 over the last 5 years. A change in the TFR is determined by progress or deterioration in family planning, fertility, age of marriage and education levels. A woman needs to have 2.1 children to keep the balance of births and deaths in a country. Some states in India still have a TFR above 2.1- Bihar(3), Meghalaya(2.9), Uttar Pradesh(2.4), Jharkhand(2.3) and Manipur(2.2). West Bengal and Maharashtra have the lowest fertility rate in the country at 1.6.

The burden of family planning in the country still remains with women though, as female sterilisation has increased along with the use of oral contraceptives. A communication strategy might be needed to reorient and divide the onus of family planning equally.

Different states in India have also been trying to bring the TFR down through their population policies. For example, Uttar Pradesh which aims to bring the TFR to 2.1 by 2026 and 1.9 by 2030. It limits access to state benefits, government jobs and rations to those who have more than 2 children.

A TFR of 2 indicates that the population is stabilising, because there are 2 children to replace 2 parents. So the population growth rate in the long run will amount to 0. India was expected to become the most populous country by 2028. But a reduction in the TFR means that this will be delayed by a few decades. Since the population has stabilised, the strain on environmental resources can also reduce considerably. This also means that healthcare, economic development and environmental protection will be less of a challenge in the long run if governments invest in public health and education right now. A young population combined with a stabilised rate of growth might give the country a chance to accelerate development over the next 3 decades.