Decentralized Prediction Markets: Will they be shut down too?
There’s this idea of wisdom of the crowds, where if you poll enough people you’ll eventually converge upon the truth. But people are quick to give opinions, and not too careful with those opinions when they’re cost-free.
What if you ask them to bet money on their answers? Things start to get a little more interesting.
It turns out that when people have skin in the game, they are usually more careful with their opinions. This is what makes betting markets so interesting.
But rather than harnessing the power of prediction markets, the US started targeting them.
Enter decentralized prediction markets, like Augur, with no middlemen or gatekeepers. They allow consenting individuals to voice their opinions whilst laying money on the line.
I explain how they work, and why they could be an incredibly powerful tool for predicting the future.
By C. Edward Kelso and Naomi Brockwell
Learn more about DARPA’s proposed prediction markets:
DARPA’s announcement of closure:
See the current odds from centralized betting markets across the world:
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Note: This episode was not sponsored in any way by Augur. I just like decentralized things.
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Permanent Record - Edward Snowden
What has the government done to our money - Rothbard
Naomi's Privacy Bag: some of my favorite products to help protect your privacy!
Use the Brave browser! https://brave.com/nao076
USB-C to ethernet adapter:
Lightening to ethernet adapter:
Faraday bag wallet (signal stopping, to protect your fob, credit card, and phone)
Data Blocker (if you're charging your phone in an unknown port, use this so that no data is transferred)
Computer privacy screen (use your computer in public? Keep your information safe!)
Phone privacy screen (don't let people in public see your private data)
Camera cover (for computers and phones, so no one can access your camera without you knowing)
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